While the chaos was a direct result of election fraud, the inside scoop here is that Kenya was a big tribal time bomb waiting to explode. From what I could tell before I left the Western press was focusing on the tribal elements of the conflict and how the fact that Kenya, East Africa's stable economic powerhouse, can erupt into such pandemonium doesn't bode well for the rest of the continent. Unfortunately I am afraid the sentiment here isn't much better. In fact, it might be worse.
I had a long chat with Alphonse, Plan's Finance Director who is Kenyan and was at his home there for the holidays, the other day about his thoughts about what this all means. A Kikuyu (the same tribe as the winning President and as a result the tribe that is currently being persecuted), Alphonse said that he was too afraid to drive home so instead flew and has asked someone to drive his car back when things settle down a bit. I asked him if the conflict was solely about a fraudulent election (some districts reported 110% voter turnout) and he said that yes, something like this always happens come election time and yes, the closeness of the election explained the heightened level of conflict, however also said that the tribal undertones had been waiting to rear their heads for a long time. Kikuyus have long known as being wealthy and corrupt (the first President of Kenya was a Kikuyu) and this stereotype isn't going away anytime soon. I asked him if the election had not been rigged if the same thing would have happened and he believed it would- that nothing will ever calm the tribal tensions. I asked him what that meant for democracy and he just shook his head.
This clearly doesn't bode well for African democratic principles. When I asked Alphonse if he was upset that the government's response to the chaos has been to try and appoint 1 or 2 members of opposing tribes to high government positions and begin business as usual, he asked what else the government could do. You see the majority of the "battles" have been fought in small villages where tribes mean everything and establishing a strong government presence there, to be honest, probably isn't going to change anything.
In terms of what this has meant for Uganda, in short lots of refugees and no fuel. The Rift Valley area of Kenya, located in the West and right on our border, has been a major battleground so hundreds of Kikuyus have sought refuge across the border. This has been significant for Plan because one of our Program Areas, Tororo District, is located right on the border so we are currently housing and supporting 500 refugees in one of our schools. We are also playing a huge role in developing a long term action plan about how to support all of the refugees seeing as Kenya doesn't look to be getting any less tumultuous anytime soon. Complicating matters is the lack of fuel due to the instability. I am happy to say I missed the worst of the crisis (at one point fuel cost $6 per liter) however I was made aware of the difficulties immediately after my arrival when my cab ride home from the airport cost 1/3 more than usual (and I got a deal that has inspired the jealousy of all of my friends). Apparently for 3 days Kampala was a ghost town devoid of any traffic jams (an all time first) as no one could either find or afford fuel. Gradually more fuel is making it into the country but prices are still higher than usual and there are still hundreds, especially in the north and western regions of the country, without any access at all.
The worst part about this whole situation is the fact that no one knows when it is going to end. This isn't a normal conflict with clear cut winners and losers as while the fighting may end the tensions won't and there is no telling when another conflict will arise.